Oil prices remained close to six-week highs on Monday as escalating attacks involving the United States and Iran intensified concerns over crude supplies moving through the Middle East, pushing Brent closer to the $100-a-barrel mark.
Brent crude rose 89 cents, or 0.92%, to $97.17 a barrel by 1333 GMT after earlier reaching $97.93, its highest level since July 24. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 79 cents to $92.27 a barrel, also trading near a recent six-week peak.
The latest advance follows a sharp rally last week, when Brent climbed about 8% and WTI gained nearly 10% amid renewed military action between the United States and Iran.
Tensions escalated further over the weekend after U.S. forces struck three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, a major Iranian oil export hub. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had also targeted three tankers travelling through what it described as unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, along with three U.S.-linked vessels elsewhere.
Maritime intelligence firm Marisks described the attacks as a “major escalation,” warning that commercial shipping was increasingly being drawn directly into the conflict.
“Commercial tankers are now being deliberately used as instruments of reciprocal economic pressure, substantially weakening the previous distinction between military confrontation and commercial shipping,” the firm said.
The growing risks to shipping have already affected traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors. Data from analytics firm Kpler showed that an average of 10 commodity vessels crossed the strait each day over the past 10 days, the lowest level since May.
Priyanka Sachdeva, head of market insights at Phillip Nova, said a further slowdown in tanker traffic could trigger a much sharper market reaction.
“If tanker traffic begins to slow materially, the market could price in a much larger supply shock. And there are already signs that this is happening,” she said.
Oil markets are also watching the potential impact of further attacks on energy infrastructure. Saudi Aramco’s Jazan oil refinery was attacked on Monday, with the extent of the damage still being assessed, according to people familiar with the matter.
The conflict has already affected commercial vessels in the region. A Saudi-owned tanker was attacked by Iran a week ago, resulting in the deaths of two seafarers. Oman said on Monday that it had evacuated 16 crew members from the vessel.
Concerns over a deeper disruption to global oil supplies have also prompted increasingly bullish forecasts. Goldman Sachs said oil prices could climb as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on commercial shipping intensify.
Iran is expected to announce a restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, according to Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates is developing alternative routes for energy exports and trade to reduce the risk of its supply lines being disrupted by the continuing US-Iran conflict, UAE presidential adviser Anwar Gargash said.
On the supply side, OPEC+ kept its oil output policy unchanged for October following a meeting on Sunday, with the producer group yet to agree on new quotas before determining its next production steps.
With tanker movements falling and attacks increasingly involving commercial vessels and energy infrastructure, traders remain focused on whether the conflict will cause a more significant disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
