LAOS (Business Emerge), October 10: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) continues to act as a crucial stabilizing influence in the Southeast Asian region, despite facing challenges such as Myanmar’s ongoing civil unrest and the complexities surrounding the South China Sea code of conduct. This affirmation comes from ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn during a recent summit in Laos attended by leaders from the 10-member bloc and senior diplomats from key global players, including the United States, China, Japan, and Russia.
With a population exceeding 685 million and contributing around 8% of global exports, ASEAN is grappling with slow progress on significant issues. Analysts have expressed concerns that these unresolved matters may diminish ASEAN’s pivotal role in regional affairs. Nevertheless, Secretary-General Kao emphasized the importance of continuous dialogue and diplomacy, highlighting the bloc’s commitment to fostering negotiations.
“ASEAN has been, and continues to be, a stabilizing force,” remarked Kao in an interview. He further noted that while challenges exist, it is essential to recognize the advancements ASEAN has achieved. “We confront issues directly,” he stated. “People often focus too much on problems, but if you assess ASEAN’s journey, we have made substantial strides.”
For example, with member economies increasingly interconnected and multiple trade agreements in place with external partners, ASEAN has attracted approximately $230 billion in foreign investments in 2023. Kao remarked, “The presence of confidence and trust in ASEAN is the reason for the influx of $230 billion in investments. The future is bright.”
Myanmar’s Ongoing Crisis
The situation in Myanmar remains intricate. Although ASEAN’s “Five Point Consensus” peace initiative for Myanmar, introduced following the military coup in 2021, has seen limited success, Kao reiterated the bloc’s commitment to remaining engaged. “We require time and patience,” he stated. “Myanmar is an extremely complex issue… A rapid resolution should not be anticipated.”
Ongoing conflict in Myanmar has led to a surge in armed resistance against the military government, leaving approximately 18.6 million people—more than a third of the population—in urgent need of humanitarian aid. Despite losing control over significant territories and being engaged on multiple fronts, the junta seems determined to proceed with plans for elections next year, which have been widely criticized as a mere facade.
ASEAN aims to facilitate “inclusive political dialogue” among all factions in Myanmar, even as the bloc’s leaders look to enhance humanitarian assistance. In December, Thailand has offered to host an “informal consultation” among ASEAN members concerning Myanmar. There are divisions among members regarding the approach to take, with some advocating for greater action from the junta while others call for increased dialogue among the opposing factions.
Tensions in the South China Sea
Another pressing concern for ASEAN is the ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, where confrontations continue to escalate between China and its neighbors, particularly the Philippines and Vietnam. This ongoing strife has brought renewed focus to ASEAN’s lengthy negotiations with Beijing regarding a code of conduct for the vital maritime route, a discussion that has been underway since 2017.
Kao stated, “Negotiations are ongoing; things are not stagnant, but progress is being made.” China asserts almost total ownership of the South China Sea, which facilitates about $3 trillion in trade annually. In pursuit of its claims, China has deployed a significant number of coast guard vessels into regions claimed by ASEAN member states, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei.
While some ASEAN countries express optimism about concluding the code within a few years, analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of establishing a legally binding framework. “The encouraging aspect is that as long as there is dialogue and diplomacy on the table, there remains hope,” Kao concluded.